Cattle market outlook
Buy this week or wait? A head-weighted view of where prices are, where they're heading, and which stockyards are cheapest right now.
This week so far · week of Jul 27
3 sale days reported
$378.66 / cwt
-7.0% vs last complete week
169 head
Early signal only — full-week picture not yet known.
Where prices are
| Period | Week of | $/cwt | vs previous week |
|---|---|---|---|
| This week (partial*) | Jul 27 | $378.66 | -7.0% |
| Last week | Jul 20 | $407.31 | -3.8% |
| 2 weeks ago | Jul 13 | $423.41 | -1.7% |
| 3 weeks ago | Jul 6 | $430.81 | -4.6% |
| 4 weeks ago | Jun 22 | $451.46 | +2.8% |
| 12 weeks ago | Apr 27 | $451.76 | — |
*3 sale days reported so far this week. The week-of number updates as more sale days come in.
Last 12 weeks + next 4
Basis — local cash vs CME front-month
last 12 overlapping weeksBasis is narrower than usual ($-19.02 vs avg). Local cash unusually weak vs CME.
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Local cash
$407.31
CME front-month
$346.37
Current basis
+$60.94
Rank vs history
0th %ile
Avg basis $79.96 · range $60.94 to $116.66. A persistently wide positive basis means your region consistently pays above the national feeder benchmark (smaller/younger cattle, supply premium, or regional demand).
2-week outlook
target week of Aug 3Methods disagree — no clear directional signal. Follow your own schedule.
Median $391.47/cwt · move -3.9% ($87/head @ 550 lb) · spread $50.73/cwt · confidence methods disagree
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Recent pace
$391.47
$-15.84/cwt (-3.9%) · $87/head
Extrapolates the last 4-week slope (-7.92 $/cwt/wk).
Simplest method. Trends reverse on news.
Seasonality-adjusted
$361.33
$-45.98/cwt (-11.3%) · $253/head
Historical Jul→Aug typically moves -11.3% (2 yrs of data).
Averages can hide big single-year swings (e.g. drought years).
CME curve + basis
$412.06
+$4.75/cwt (+1.2%) · +$26/head
Aug 2026 futures @ $348.02 plus your local basis of $+64.03/cwt.
Assumes your cash-vs-CME basis holds; basis can widen or tighten.
Three independent methods. When they agree, confidence is higher. When they disagree, the direction is unclear — no single number replaces judgment.
How accurate have these methods been?
last 12 × 2-week windowsOver the last 12 windows with this filter, Seasonality had the lowest typical error (±$19.83/cwt). Direction was correct 50% of the time.
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| Method | Avg error | Bias | Direction right |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seasonality | ±$19.83 | +$5.51 | 50% |
| No-change baseline | ±$22.08 | +$7.95 | 0% |
| Recent pace | ±$28.71 | +$4.73 | 25% |
Rolling walk-forward test: for each of the last 12 weeks, run each method as-if that week were "now," compare projected to actual. CME + basis is excluded here — proper backtest needs historical forward-curve snapshots we don't yet store.
Historical context — same week, prior years
ISO week 30 · 2 yrs of dataThis week at $407.31 is 12.1% higher than same week last year ($363.21).
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| Year | $/cwt | vs now | Head |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $287.01 | +41.9% | 302 |
| 2025 | $363.21 | +12.1% | 475 |
| 2026 (now) | $407.31 | — | — |
Same ISO-week price head-weighted across each prior year. A single number can mislead on a strong trend — seeing each year separately shows whether this year is exceptional or just the next step in a longer move.
Cheapest stockyards · week of Jul 20
| # | Market | $/cwt | Priced head | Sale size | Sale day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kilpatrick, AL | $373.99 | 11 | 203 | Wed |
| 2 | Ashville, AL | $389.77 | 27 | 306 | Mon |
| 3 | Brundidge, AL | $396.40 | 14 | 375 | Wed |
| 4 | New Brockton, AL | $397.45 | 15 | 396 | Mon |
| 5 | Uniontown, AL | $397.74 | 53 | 638 | Tue |
Priced head: head in this class/weight slice. Sale size: total cattle sold at this market for the week (all classes).
Fresh sales · this week so far
| Market | Sold | $/cwt | Head | vs last wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashville, AL | Mon Jul 27 | $345.68 | 6 | -11.3% |
| Dothan, AL | Mon Jul 27 | $362.64 | 21 | -13.1% |
| Frisco City, AL | Wed Jul 29 | $373.89 | 9 | -4.7% |
| Letohatchee, AL | Tue Jul 28 | $376.57 | 53 | -8.3% |
| New Brockton, AL | Mon Jul 27 | $378.48 | 5 | -4.8% |
| Uniontown, AL | Tue Jul 28 | $380.15 | 23 | -4.4% |
| Roanoke, AL | Wed Jul 29 | $380.33 | 20 | -5.6% |
| Brundidge, AL | Wed Jul 29 | $388.15 | 11 | -2.1% |
| Florence, AL | Mon Jul 27 | $401.64 | 12 | -6.0% |
| Arab, AL | Tue Jul 28 | $405.55 | 9 | -3.9% |