Cattle market outlook
Buy this week or wait? A head-weighted view of where prices are, where they're heading, and which stockyards are cheapest right now.
This week so far · week of Sep 28
3 sale days reported
$362.70 / cwt
-2.7% vs last complete week
323 head
Early signal only — full-week picture not yet known.
Where prices are
| Period | Week of | $/cwt | vs previous week |
|---|---|---|---|
| This week (partial*) | Sep 28 | $362.70 | -2.7% |
| Last week | Sep 21 | $372.72 | -0.1% |
| 2 weeks ago | Sep 14 | $373.05 | +3.2% |
| 3 weeks ago | Sep 7 | $361.57 | +4.7% |
| 4 weeks ago | Aug 31 | $345.26 | -1.1% |
| 12 weeks ago | Jul 6 | $430.81 | — |
*3 sale days reported so far this week. The week-of number updates as more sale days come in.
Last 12 weeks + next 4
Basis — local cash vs CME front-month
last 12 overlapping weeksBasis is in a normal range ($-5.00 vs avg).
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Local cash
$372.72
CME front-month
$336.77
Current basis
+$35.95
Rank vs history
64th %ile
Avg basis $40.95 · range $18.32 to $74.28. A persistently wide positive basis means your region consistently pays above the national feeder benchmark (smaller/younger cattle, supply premium, or regional demand).
2-week outlook
target week of Oct 5Methods disagree — no clear directional signal. Follow your own schedule.
Median $374.84/cwt · move +0.6% (+$12/head @ 550 lb) · spread $63.51/cwt · confidence methods disagree
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Recent pace
$384.45
+$11.73/cwt (+3.1%) · +$65/head
Extrapolates the last 4-week slope (5.86 $/cwt/wk).
Simplest method. Trends reverse on news.
Seasonality-adjusted
$320.94
$-51.77/cwt (-13.9%) · $285/head
Historical Sep→Oct typically moves -13.9% (7 yrs of data).
Averages can hide big single-year swings (e.g. drought years).
CME curve + basis
$374.84
+$2.13/cwt (+0.6%) · +$12/head
Oct 2026 futures @ $338.88 plus your local basis of $+35.97/cwt.
Assumes your cash-vs-CME basis holds; basis can widen or tighten.
Three independent methods. When they agree, confidence is higher. When they disagree, the direction is unclear — no single number replaces judgment.
How accurate have these methods been?
last 12 × 2-week windowsOver the last 12 windows with this filter, No-change baseline had the lowest typical error (±$20.68/cwt). Direction was correct 0% of the time.
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| Method | Avg error | Bias | Direction right |
|---|---|---|---|
| No-change baseline | ±$20.68 | +$12.06 | 0% |
| Recent pace | ±$21.96 | $-0.48 | 42% |
| Seasonality | ±$22.69 | +$9.07 | 50% |
Rolling walk-forward test: for each of the last 12 weeks, run each method as-if that week were "now," compare projected to actual. CME + basis is excluded here — proper backtest needs historical forward-curve snapshots we don't yet store.
Historical context — same week, prior years
ISO week 39 · 5 yrs of dataThis week at $372.72 is 6.8% lower than same week last year ($400.05).
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| Year | $/cwt | vs now | Head |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $139.02 | +168.1% | 108 |
| 2022 | $155.46 | +139.8% | 76 |
| 2023 | $270.03 | +38.0% | 133 |
| 2024 | $245.27 | +52.0% | 240 |
| 2025 | $400.05 | -6.8% | 450 |
| 2026 (now) | $372.72 | — | — |
Same ISO-week price head-weighted across each prior year. A single number can mislead on a strong trend — seeing each year separately shows whether this year is exceptional or just the next step in a longer move.
Cheapest stockyards · week of Sep 21
| # | Market | $/cwt | Priced head | Sale size | Sale day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashville, AL | $336.70 | 16 | 191 | Mon |
| 2 | Opp, AL | $357.46 | 16 | 175 | Tue |
| 3 | Brundidge, AL | $363.75 | 20 | 338 | Wed |
| 4 | Letohatchee, AL | $364.06 | 46 | 1,214 | Tue |
| 5 | Uniontown, AL | $368.55 | 45 | 726 | Tue |
Priced head: head in this class/weight slice. Sale size: total cattle sold at this market for the week (all classes).
Fresh sales · this week so far
| Market | Sold | $/cwt | Head | vs last wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frisco City, AL | Wed Sep 30 | $343.72 | 24 | -3.2% |
| Lineville, AL | Tue Sep 29 | $346.89 | 9 | -6.3% |
| Dothan, AL | Mon Sep 28 | $356.34 | 14 | — |
| New Brockton, AL | Mon Sep 28 | $356.77 | 31 | -3.2% |
| Letohatchee, AL | Tue Sep 29 | $358.45 | 55 | -1.5% |
| Uniontown, AL | Tue Sep 29 | $362.54 | 34 | -1.6% |
| Moulton, AL | Wed Sep 30 | $365.00 | 12 | — |
| Brundidge, AL | Wed Sep 30 | $365.31 | 14 | +0.4% |
| Roanoke, AL | Wed Sep 30 | $366.41 | 38 | -6.2% |
| Russellville, AL | Mon Sep 28 | $366.75 | 17 | -2.7% |
| Opp, AL | Tue Sep 29 | $367.95 | 14 | +2.9% |
| Ashville, AL | Mon Sep 28 | $370.71 | 36 | +10.1% |
| Cullman, AL | Tue Sep 29 | $371.43 | 7 | -12.6% |
| Kilpatrick, AL | Wed Sep 30 | $380.02 | 5 | +1.6% |
| Arab, AL | Tue Sep 29 | $385.01 | 7 | — |
1 more market reported this week — narrow the region filter to see them.